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Wednesday · May 20 · 6:41 PM ✦

RED SOX @ ROYALS

Kauffman Stadium. · 65 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 4 mph in from rf

Final

RED SOX 4
Royals 3

Our Pick

KANSAS CITY ROYALS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Kansas City Royals · Actual: 4–3 Red Sox

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Red Sox Royals Projected Result
Baseline Boston Red Sox 67% 33% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Boston Red Sox 56% 44% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Kansas City Royals 44% 56% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Kansas City Royals 33% 67% 3–4
Logistic Kansas City Royals 50% 50%
Random Forest Kansas City Royals 33% 67%
Consensus Kansas City Royals 48% 52% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Red Sox this season

32–12

73% across 44 games

Royals this season

22–23

49% across 45 games