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Friday · July 3 · 7:15 pm ✦

RAYS @ ASTROS

Daikin Park. · 72 degrees, roof closed, wind 0 mph none

Final

RAYS 3
Astros 1

Our Pick

HOUSTON ASTROS

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Houston Astros · Actual: 3–1 Rays

55%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Rays Astros Projected Result
Baseline Houston Astros 44% 56% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Tampa Bay Rays 53% 47% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Houston Astros 44% 56% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Houston Astros 45% 55% 3–4
Logistic Houston Astros 45% 55%
Random Forest Houston Astros 40% 60%
Consensus Houston Astros 45% 55% 3–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Rays this season

41–41

50% across 82 games

Astros this season

51–34

60% across 85 games