Back to the recap

Saturday · May 16 · 1:11 PM ✦

BLUE JAYS @ TIGERS

Comerica Park. · 63 degrees, cloudy, wind 10 mph r to l

Final

BLUE JAYS 2
Tigers 1

Our Pick

DETROIT TIGERS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Detroit Tigers · Actual: 2–1 Blue Jays

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Tigers Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 55% 45% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Detroit Tigers 47% 53% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Detroit Tigers 47% 53% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Detroit Tigers 47% 53% 3–3
Logistic Toronto Blue Jays 52% 48%
Random Forest Detroit Tigers 45% 55%
Consensus Detroit Tigers 49% 51% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

20–25

44% across 45 games

Tigers this season

31–13

70% across 44 games