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Friday · May 15 · 7:11 PM ✦

REDS @ GUARDIANS

Progressive Field. · 64 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 4 mph in from cf

Final

REDS 7
Guardians 6

Our Pick

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS, comfortably

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–7 Cleveland Guardians · Actual: 7–6 Reds

67%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Guardians Projected Result
Baseline Cleveland Guardians 22% 78% 4–7
Pitcher-weighted Cleveland Guardians 22% 78% 3–6
Platoon-weighted Cleveland Guardians 24% 76% 4–6
Pitcher + Platoon Cleveland Guardians 27% 73% 3–7
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 50% 50%
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 51% 49%
Consensus Cleveland Guardians 33% 67% 4–7
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Guardians this season

22–24

48% across 46 games