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Thursday · August 20 · 12:41 PM ✦

CARDINALS @ REDS

Great American Ball Park. · 75 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 3 mph out to cf

Final

CARDINALS 10
Reds 9

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 10–9 Cardinals

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Cardinals Reds Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 35% 65% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 47% 53% 3–3
Platoon-weighted St. Louis Cardinals 55% 45% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 44% 56% 3–4
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 48% 52%
Random Forest St. Louis Cardinals 51% 49%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 46% 54% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Cardinals this season

69–54

56% across 123 games

Reds this season

64–58

52% across 122 games