Friday · July 31 · 6:10 pm ✦
PIRATES @ REDS
Great American Ball Park. · 80 degrees, clear, wind 1 mph calm
Final
Pirates
7
REDS
8
Our Pick
PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 7–8 Reds
53%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Pirates | Reds | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Cincinnati Reds | 47% | 53% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55% | 45% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55% | 45% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60% | 40% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57% | 43% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Cincinnati Reds | 36% | 64% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53% | 47% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Pirates this season
85–70
55% across 155 games
Reds this season
82–73
53% across 155 games