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Friday · July 31 · 6:10 pm ✦

PIRATES @ REDS

Great American Ball Park. · 80 degrees, clear, wind 1 mph calm

Final

Pirates 7
REDS 8

Our Pick

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Pittsburgh Pirates · Actual: 7–8 Reds

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Reds Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 55% 45% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Pittsburgh Pirates 60% 40% 4–3
Logistic Pittsburgh Pirates 57% 43%
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 36% 64%
Consensus Pittsburgh Pirates 53% 47% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

68–56

55% across 124 games

Reds this season

64–59

52% across 123 games