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Thursday · July 30 · 7:10 pm ✦

PIRATES @ REDS

Great American Ball Park. · 83 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 4 mph l to r

Final

Pirates 2
REDS 3

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–3 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 2–3 Reds

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Reds Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 47% 53% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 53% 47% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 45% 55% 3–3
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 49% 51%
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 32% 68%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 47% 53% 4–3
4 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

68–56

55% across 124 games

Reds this season

64–59

52% across 123 games