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Saturday · July 11 · 7:10 pm ✦

CUBS @ REDS

Great American Ball Park. · 76 degrees, cloudy, wind 5 mph l to r

Final

CUBS 5
Reds 3

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 5–3 Cubs

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Cubs Reds Projected Result
Baseline Chicago Cubs 60% 40% 5–5
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 47% 53% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Cincinnati Reds 49% 51% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 49% 51% 4–4
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 48% 52%
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 36% 64%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 49% 51% 4–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Cubs this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Reds this season

65–59

52% across 124 games