Saturday · July 11 · 7:10 pm ✦
CUBS @ REDS
Great American Ball Park. · 76 degrees, cloudy, wind 5 mph l to r
Final
CUBS
5
Reds
3
Our Pick
CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 5–3 Cubs
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Cubs | Reds | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Chicago Cubs | 60% | 40% | 5–5 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 47% | 53% | 3–3 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 49% | 51% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Cincinnati Reds | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Cincinnati Reds | 48% | 52% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Cincinnati Reds | 36% | 64% | — | ✗ |
| Consensus | Cincinnati Reds | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
1 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Cubs this season
77–80
49% across 157 games
Reds this season
82–73
53% across 155 games