Thursday · July 9 · 7:10 pm ✦
PHILLIES @ REDS
Great American Ball Park. · 87 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 6 mph out to lf
Final
PHILLIES
1
Reds
0
Our Pick
CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 1–0 Phillies
50%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Phillies | Reds | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Cincinnati Reds | 47% | 53% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 69% | 31% | 5–3 | ✓ |
| Platoon-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Cincinnati Reds | 40% | 60% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 53% | 47% | — | ✓ |
| Random Forest | Cincinnati Reds | 32% | 68% | — | ✗ |
| Consensus | Cincinnati Reds | 50% | 50% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Logistic caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Phillies this season
94–64
59% across 158 games
Reds this season
82–73
53% across 155 games