Tuesday · July 7 · 7:10 pm ✦
PHILLIES @ REDS
Great American Ball Park. · 85 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 5 mph out to rf
Final
PHILLIES
4
Reds
1
Our Pick
CINCINNATI REDS
✗ WrongProjected: 3–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 4–1 Phillies
55%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Phillies | Reds | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Philadelphia Phillies | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Cincinnati Reds | 38% | 62% | 3–3 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Cincinnati Reds | 47% | 53% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Cincinnati Reds | 30% | 70% | — | ✗ |
| Consensus | Cincinnati Reds | 45% | 55% | 3–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Platoon-weighted caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Phillies this season
94–64
59% across 158 games
Reds this season
82–73
53% across 155 games