Saturday · July 4 · 7:10 pm ✦
ORIOLES @ REDS
Great American Ball Park. · 87 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 5 mph r to l
Final
ORIOLES
8
Reds
5
Our Pick
BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly
✓ CorrectProjected: 4–4 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 8–5 Orioles
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Orioles | Reds | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Baltimore Orioles | 60% | 40% | 4–3 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 44% | 56% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Cincinnati Reds | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Cincinnati Reds | 47% | 53% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Baltimore Orioles | 57% | 43% | — | ✓ |
| Random Forest | Cincinnati Reds | 44% | 56% | — | ✗ |
| Consensus | Baltimore Orioles | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✓ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Logistic caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Orioles this season
81–72
53% across 153 games
Reds this season
82–73
53% across 155 games