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Tuesday · May 12 ✦

NATIONALS @ REDS

Great American Ball Park.

Final

NATIONALS 10
Reds 4

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 10–4 Nationals

57%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Nationals Reds Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 49% 51% 3–3
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 36% 64% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Cincinnati Reds 40% 60% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 40% 60% 3–4
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 41% 59%
Random Forest Washington Nationals 56% 44%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 43% 57% 3–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Nationals this season

27–19

59% across 46 games

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games