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Friday · May 8 · 6:11 PM ✦

ASTROS @ REDS

Great American Ball Park. · 67 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 10 mph r to l

Final

ASTROS 10
Reds 0

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 10–0 Astros

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Astros Reds Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 44% 56% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 45% 55% 2–3
Platoon-weighted Houston Astros 53% 47% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 35% 65% 2–4
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 49% 51%
Random Forest Houston Astros 51% 49%
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 47% 53% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Astros this season

30–14

68% across 44 games

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games