← Back to the recap

Sunday · March 29 · 1:40 pm ✦

RED SOX @ REDS

Great American Ball Park. · 60 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 11 mph r to l

Final

Red Sox 2
REDS 3

Our Pick

CINCINNATI REDS

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–4 Cincinnati Reds · Actual: 2–3 Reds

59%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Red Sox Reds Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 44% 56% 4–4 ✓
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 45% 55% 3–3 ✓
Platoon-weighted Boston Red Sox 51% 49% 4–4 ✗
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 42% 58% 3–4 ✓
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 40% 60% — ✓
Random Forest Cincinnati Reds 30% 70% — ✓
Consensus Cincinnati Reds 41% 59% 4–4 ✓
5 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Red Sox this season

32–13

71% across 45 games

Reds this season

31–16

66% across 47 games