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Thursday · May 7 · 1:20 PM ✦

REDS @ CUBS

Wrigley Field. · 54 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 8 mph r to l

Final

Reds 3
CUBS 8

Our Pick

CHICAGO CUBS, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–3 Chicago Cubs · Actual: 3–8 Cubs

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Cubs Projected Result
Baseline Cincinnati Reds 53% 47% 5–4
Pitcher-weighted Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Cincinnati Reds 51% 49% 3–3
Logistic Chicago Cubs 35% 65%
Random Forest Chicago Cubs 42% 58%
Consensus Chicago Cubs 46% 54% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Cubs this season

21–24

47% across 45 games