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Monday · May 4 · 6:10 pm ✦

REDS @ CUBS

Wrigley Field. · 76 degrees, cloudy, wind 14 mph out to cf

Final

Reds 4
CUBS 5

Our Pick

CHICAGO CUBS

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–10 Chicago Cubs · Actual: 4–5 Cubs

63%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Reds Cubs Projected Result
Baseline Chicago Cubs 42% 58% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Chicago Cubs 2% 98% 4–15
Platoon-weighted Cincinnati Reds 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Chicago Cubs 2% 98% 4–16
Logistic Cincinnati Reds 77% 23%
Random Forest Chicago Cubs 32% 68%
Consensus Chicago Cubs 37% 63% 4–10
4 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Reds this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Cubs this season

21–24

47% across 45 games