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Saturday · April 11 · 1:20 PM ✦

PIRATES @ CUBS

Wrigley Field. · 48 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 7 mph in from rf

Final

PIRATES 4
Cubs 3

Our Pick

CHICAGO CUBS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Chicago Cubs · Actual: 4–3 Pirates

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Pirates Cubs Projected Result
Baseline Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates 51% 49% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Chicago Cubs 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Chicago Cubs 45% 55% 3–4
Logistic Chicago Cubs 46% 54%
Random Forest Chicago Cubs 42% 58%
Consensus Chicago Cubs 47% 53% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Pirates this season

26–21

55% across 47 games

Cubs this season

21–26

45% across 47 games