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Wednesday · August 19 · 4:11 PM ✦

D-BACKS @ RED SOX

Fenway Park. · 85 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 4 mph out to rf

Final

D-BACKS 7
Red Sox 6

Our Pick

BOSTON RED SOX

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–4 Boston Red Sox · Actual: 7–6 D-backs

55%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick D-backs Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Boston Red Sox 40% 60% 3–4
Pitcher-weighted Boston Red Sox 29% 71% 2–4
Platoon-weighted Arizona Diamondbacks 55% 45% 3–3
Pitcher + Platoon Boston Red Sox 42% 58% 3–3
Logistic Arizona Diamondbacks 53% 47%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 49% 51%
Consensus Boston Red Sox 45% 55% 3–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

D-backs this season

69–53

57% across 122 games

Red Sox this season

66–56

54% across 122 games