Back to the recap

Sunday · July 26 · 1:38 PM ✦

BLUE JAYS @ RED SOX

Fenway Park. · 75 degrees, sunny, wind 9 mph in from rf

Final

Blue Jays 1
RED SOX 6

Our Pick

TORONTO BLUE JAYS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Toronto Blue Jays · Actual: 1–6 Red Sox

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 58% 42% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Boston Red Sox 38% 62% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 67% 33% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Toronto Blue Jays 53% 47% 4–3
Logistic Toronto Blue Jays 50% 50%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 43% 57%
Consensus Toronto Blue Jays 52% 48% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Red Sox this season

66–57

54% across 123 games