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Friday · July 24 · 7:15 pm ✦

BLUE JAYS @ RED SOX

Fenway Park. · 76 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 8 mph out to lf

Final

Blue Jays 4
RED SOX 6

Our Pick

TORONTO BLUE JAYS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Toronto Blue Jays · Actual: 4–6 Red Sox

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Toronto Blue Jays 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Boston Red Sox 49% 51% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 60% 40% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Toronto Blue Jays 55% 45% 4–4
Logistic Toronto Blue Jays 54% 46%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 36% 64%
Consensus Toronto Blue Jays 53% 47% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Red Sox this season

66–57

54% across 123 games