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Saturday · July 25 · 4:11 PM ✦

BLUE JAYS @ RED SOX

Fenway Park. · 78 degrees, sunny, wind 8 mph in from rf

Final

BLUE JAYS 6
Red Sox 0

Our Pick

BOSTON RED SOX, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 3–3 Boston Red Sox · Actual: 6–0 Blue Jays

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Blue Jays Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Boston Red Sox 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Boston Red Sox 44% 56% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Toronto Blue Jays 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Boston Red Sox 47% 53% 3–3
Logistic Toronto Blue Jays 51% 49%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 37% 63%
Consensus Boston Red Sox 48% 52% 3–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Blue Jays this season

61–63

49% across 124 games

Red Sox this season

66–57

54% across 123 games