Monday · July 20 · 7:10 pm ✦
ORIOLES @ RED SOX
Fenway Park. · 79 degrees, clear, wind 7 mph out to lf
Final
Orioles
5
RED SOX
6
Our Pick
BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–3 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 5–6 Red Sox
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Orioles | Red Sox | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Boston Red Sox | 45% | 55% | 3–4 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Baltimore Orioles | 56% | 44% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Baltimore Orioles | 53% | 47% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Baltimore Orioles | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Baltimore Orioles | 52% | 48% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Boston Red Sox | 48% | 52% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Baltimore Orioles | 51% | 49% | 4–3 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Orioles this season
81–72
53% across 153 games
Red Sox this season
85–72
54% across 157 games