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Tuesday · May 26 ✦

BRAVES @ RED SOX

Fenway Park.

Final

BRAVES 7
Red Sox 6

Our Pick

BOSTON RED SOX, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–3 Boston Red Sox · Actual: 7–6 Braves

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Braves Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Atlanta Braves 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Atlanta Braves 55% 45% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Boston Red Sox 45% 55% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Boston Red Sox 49% 51% 3–3
Logistic Boston Red Sox 40% 60%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 40% 60%
Consensus Boston Red Sox 47% 53% 4–3
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Pitcher-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Braves this season

46–41

53% across 87 games

Red Sox this season

52–33

61% across 85 games