Wednesday · May 13 · 6:46 PM ✦
PHILLIES @ RED SOX
Fenway Park. · 62 degrees, overcast, wind 6 mph r to l
Final
Phillies
1
RED SOX
3
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 1–3 Red Sox
54%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Phillies | Red Sox | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Philadelphia Phillies | 62% | 38% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 53% | 47% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 58% | 42% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Boston Red Sox | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✓ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 57% | 43% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Boston Red Sox | 39% | 61% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Philadelphia Phillies | 54% | 46% | 4–3 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Phillies this season
30–15
67% across 45 games
Red Sox this season
32–12
73% across 44 games