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Tuesday · May 12 ✦

PHILLIES @ RED SOX

Fenway Park.

Final

PHILLIES 2
Red Sox 1

Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–3 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 2–1 Phillies

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Phillies Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Philadelphia Phillies 56% 44% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 69% 31% 5–3
Platoon-weighted Philadelphia Phillies 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Philadelphia Phillies 67% 33% 4–3
Logistic Boston Red Sox 34% 66%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 44% 56%
Consensus Philadelphia Phillies 54% 46% 4–3
4 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Phillies this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Red Sox this season

32–12

73% across 44 games