Saturday · May 2 · 4:12 PM ✦
ASTROS @ RED SOX
Fenway Park. · 57 degrees, overcast, wind 6 mph out to lf
Final
ASTROS
6
Red Sox
3
Our Pick
HOUSTON ASTROS, narrowly
✓ CorrectProjected: 3–4 Houston Astros · Actual: 6–3 Astros
52%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Astros | Red Sox | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Houston Astros | 51% | 49% | 4–3 | ✓ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Boston Red Sox | 38% | 62% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Boston Red Sox | 45% | 55% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Boston Red Sox | 49% | 51% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Boston Red Sox | 49% | 51% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Houston Astros | 72% | 28% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Houston Astros | 52% | 48% | 3–4 | ✓ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Astros this season
90–65
58% across 155 games
Red Sox this season
85–72
54% across 157 games