Friday · May 1 · 7:10 pm ✦
ASTROS @ RED SOX
Fenway Park. · 60 degrees, clear, wind 6 mph out to rf
Final
Astros
1
RED SOX
3
Our Pick
HOUSTON ASTROS, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Houston Astros · Actual: 1–3 Red Sox
52%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Astros | Red Sox | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Houston Astros | 55% | 45% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Houston Astros | 58% | 42% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Platoon-weighted | Houston Astros | 55% | 45% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Houston Astros | 56% | 44% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Houston Astros | 52% | 48% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Boston Red Sox | 40% | 60% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Houston Astros | 52% | 48% | 4–4 | ✗ |
1 of 6 sims got it right — Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Astros this season
90–65
58% across 155 games
Red Sox this season
85–72
54% across 157 games