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Friday · May 1 · 7:10 pm ✦

ASTROS @ RED SOX

Fenway Park. · 60 degrees, clear, wind 6 mph out to rf

Final

Astros 1
RED SOX 3

Our Pick

HOUSTON ASTROS, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Houston Astros · Actual: 1–3 Red Sox

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Astros Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Houston Astros 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Houston Astros 58% 42% 4–4
Platoon-weighted Houston Astros 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Houston Astros 56% 44% 4–3
Logistic Houston Astros 52% 48%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 40% 60%
Consensus Houston Astros 52% 48% 4–4
1 of 6 sims got it right — Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Astros this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Red Sox this season

32–13

71% across 45 games