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Saturday · April 18 · 4:10 pm ✦

TIGERS @ RED SOX

Fenway Park. · 47 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 9 mph in from cf

Final

TIGERS 4
Red Sox 1

Our Pick

BOSTON RED SOX, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Boston Red Sox · Actual: 4–1 Tigers

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Tigers Red Sox Projected Result
Baseline Boston Red Sox 44% 56% 4–5
Pitcher-weighted Detroit Tigers 55% 45% 4–3
Platoon-weighted Boston Red Sox 47% 53% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Detroit Tigers 51% 49% 4–4
Logistic Boston Red Sox 47% 53%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 37% 63%
Consensus Boston Red Sox 46% 54% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Pitcher + Platoon caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Tigers this season

32–13

71% across 45 games

Red Sox this season

32–13

71% across 45 games