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Friday · August 21 · 7:15 pm ✦

RAYS @ ORIOLES

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 77 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 3 mph in from rf

Final

Rays 3
ORIOLES 5

Our Pick

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 3–4 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 3–5 Orioles

54%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Rays Orioles Projected Result
Baseline Baltimore Orioles 35% 65% 4–5
Pitcher-weighted Baltimore Orioles 40% 60% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Tampa Bay Rays 51% 49% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Tampa Bay Rays 55% 45% 3–3
Logistic Baltimore Orioles 48% 52%
Random Forest Baltimore Orioles 48% 52%
Consensus Baltimore Orioles 46% 54% 3–4
4 of 6 sims got it right.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Rays this season

61–60

50% across 121 games

Orioles this season

67–53

56% across 120 games