Friday · July 31 · 7:05 pm ✦
PHILLIES @ ORIOLES
Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 85 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 3 mph r to l
Final
Phillies
4
ORIOLES
6
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Philadelphia Phillies · Actual: 4–6 Orioles
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Phillies | Orioles | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Philadelphia Phillies | 53% | 47% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Baltimore Orioles | 38% | 62% | 3–4 | ✓ |
| Platoon-weighted | Philadelphia Phillies | 51% | 49% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Philadelphia Phillies | 56% | 44% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Philadelphia Phillies | 61% | 39% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Baltimore Orioles | 37% | 63% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Philadelphia Phillies | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Phillies this season
94–64
59% across 158 games
Orioles this season
81–72
53% across 153 games