Thursday · April 30 · 12:35 PM ✦
ASTROS @ ORIOLES
Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 63 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 13 mph l to r
Final
Astros
3
ORIOLES
10
Our Pick
BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly
✓ CorrectProjected: 4–4 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 3–10 Orioles
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Astros | Orioles | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Houston Astros | 55% | 45% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Baltimore Orioles | 44% | 56% | 4–5 | ✓ |
| Platoon-weighted | Houston Astros | 71% | 29% | 5–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Houston Astros | 53% | 47% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Houston Astros | 51% | 49% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Baltimore Orioles | 30% | 70% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Baltimore Orioles | 49% | 51% | 4–4 | ✓ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Astros this season
90–65
58% across 155 games
Orioles this season
81–72
53% across 153 games