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Thursday · April 30 · 12:35 PM ✦

ASTROS @ ORIOLES

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 63 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 13 mph l to r

Final

Astros 3
ORIOLES 10

Our Pick

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–4 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 3–10 Orioles

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Astros Orioles Projected Result
Baseline Houston Astros 55% 45% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Baltimore Orioles 44% 56% 4–5
Platoon-weighted Houston Astros 71% 29% 5–3
Pitcher + Platoon Houston Astros 53% 47% 4–4
Logistic Houston Astros 51% 49%
Random Forest Baltimore Orioles 30% 70%
Consensus Baltimore Orioles 49% 51% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Astros this season

30–15

67% across 45 games

Orioles this season

28–17

62% across 45 games