Tuesday · April 28 · 6:38 PM ✦
ASTROS @ ORIOLES
Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 59 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 8 mph out to lf
Final
Astros
3
ORIOLES
5
Our Pick
HOUSTON ASTROS, narrowly
✗ WrongProjected: 4–4 Houston Astros · Actual: 3–5 Orioles
51%
Consensus
— Simulation Breakdown —
| Simulation | Pick | Astros | Orioles | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Houston Astros | 60% | 40% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher-weighted | Baltimore Orioles | 35% | 65% | 4–5 | ✓ |
| Platoon-weighted | Houston Astros | 67% | 33% | 4–3 | ✗ |
| Pitcher + Platoon | Houston Astros | 55% | 45% | 4–4 | ✗ |
| Logistic | Houston Astros | 56% | 44% | — | ✗ |
| Random Forest | Baltimore Orioles | 39% | 61% | — | ✓ |
| Consensus | Houston Astros | 51% | 49% | 4–4 | ✗ |
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher-weighted and Random Forest caught what the others missed.
— How We've Done On These Teams —
Astros this season
30–15
67% across 45 games
Orioles this season
28–17
62% across 45 games