Back to the recap

Sunday · April 26 · 1:37 PM ✦

RED SOX @ ORIOLES

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 53 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 14 mph in from lf

Final

RED SOX 5
Orioles 3

Our Pick

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 5–3 Red Sox

52%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Red Sox Orioles Projected Result
Baseline Baltimore Orioles 49% 51% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Baltimore Orioles 49% 51% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Baltimore Orioles 38% 62% 3–4
Pitcher + Platoon Boston Red Sox 56% 44% 4–3
Logistic Baltimore Orioles 44% 56%
Random Forest Boston Red Sox 52% 48%
Consensus Baltimore Orioles 48% 52% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Pitcher + Platoon and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Red Sox this season

32–13

71% across 45 games

Orioles this season

28–17

62% across 45 games