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Friday · April 24 · 7:05 pm ✦

RED SOX @ ORIOLES

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. · 70 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 3 mph r to l

Final

Red Sox 3
ORIOLES 10

Our Pick

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, narrowly

✓ Correct

Projected: 4–4 Baltimore Orioles · Actual: 3–10 Orioles

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Red Sox Orioles Projected Result
Baseline Boston Red Sox 56% 44% 4–4
Pitcher-weighted Boston Red Sox 53% 47% 3–3
Platoon-weighted Boston Red Sox 58% 42% 4–3
Pitcher + Platoon Boston Red Sox 51% 49% 4–4
Logistic Baltimore Orioles 48% 52%
Random Forest Baltimore Orioles 32% 68%
Consensus Baltimore Orioles 49% 51% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Logistic and Random Forest caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Red Sox this season

32–13

71% across 45 games

Orioles this season

28–17

62% across 45 games