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Tuesday · July 21 · 7:15 pm ✦

PADRES @ BRAVES

Truist Park. · 87 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 10 mph in from cf

Final

PADRES 8
Braves 3

Our Pick

ATLANTA BRAVES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Atlanta Braves · Actual: 8–3 Padres

53%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Padres Braves Projected Result
Baseline San Diego Padres 65% 35% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Atlanta Braves 40% 60% 3–4
Platoon-weighted San Diego Padres 53% 47% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Atlanta Braves 38% 62% 3–4
Logistic Atlanta Braves 48% 52%
Random Forest Atlanta Braves 30% 70%
Consensus Atlanta Braves 47% 53% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Baseline and Platoon-weighted caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Padres this season

77–46

63% across 123 games

Braves this season

64–61

51% across 125 games