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Saturday · May 16 · 7:16 PM ✦

RED SOX @ BRAVES

Truist Park. · 82 degrees, cloudy, wind 3 mph calm

Final

RED SOX 3
Braves 2

Our Pick

ATLANTA BRAVES, narrowly

✗ Wrong

Projected: 4–4 Atlanta Braves · Actual: 3–2 Red Sox

51%

Consensus

— Simulation Breakdown —

Simulation Pick Red Sox Braves Projected Result
Baseline Atlanta Braves 49% 51% 4–3
Pitcher-weighted Atlanta Braves 38% 62% 3–4
Platoon-weighted Boston Red Sox 56% 44% 4–4
Pitcher + Platoon Atlanta Braves 45% 55% 4–4
Logistic Boston Red Sox 56% 44%
Random Forest Atlanta Braves 47% 53%
Consensus Atlanta Braves 49% 51% 4–4
2 of 6 sims got it right — Platoon-weighted and Logistic caught what the others missed.

— How We've Done On These Teams —

Red Sox this season

32–12

73% across 44 games

Braves this season

25–21

54% across 46 games