Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
55.1% Accuracy
140–114 across 254 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 137 | 254 | 53.9% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 137 | 254 | 53.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 125 | 254 | 49.2% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon ★ leader | 144 | 254 | 56.7% | |
| Logistic | 134 | 254 | 52.8% | |
| Random Forest | 129 | 254 | 50.8% | |
| Consensus | 140 | 254 | 55.1% |
Pitcher + Platoon is leading individual model by 2.8 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Giants
12–3
80.0%
Athletics
11–4
73.3%
Cardinals
11–4
73.3%
Astros
12–5
70.6%
Dodgers
14–6
70.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
D-backs
4–11
26.7%
Orioles
5–10
33.3%
Mets
6–10
37.5%
Blue Jays
6–9
40.0%
Guardians
8–11
42.1%
53-point spread between best and worst — D-backs the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 159 | 52.2% | 52.2% | -0.0 |
| 55-60% | 72 | 57.0% | 52.8% | -4.2 |
| 60-65% | 16 | 62.4% | 75.0% | +12.6 |
| 65-70% | 6 | 66.8% | 100.0% | +33.2 |
| 70%+ | 1 | 74.6% | 100.0% | +25.4 |
Calibration drifts up to 33.2 points across bands.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.7%
across 256 picks
Home team picks
59.0%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Tuesday, October 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Thursday, October 8 · 0.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |