Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
54.1% Accuracy
216–183 across 399 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 217 | 399 | 54.4% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 211 | 399 | 52.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 195 | 399 | 48.9% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 213 | 399 | 53.4% | |
| Logistic | 179 | 399 | 44.9% | |
| Random Forest | 199 | 399 | 49.9% | |
| Consensus | 216 | 399 | 54.1% |
Baseline is leading individual model by 1.0 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Giants
19–7
73.1%
Phillies
18–8
69.2%
Rangers
18–9
66.7%
Orioles
17–9
65.4%
Dodgers
17–9
65.4%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Red Sox
10–17
37.0%
White Sox
11–16
40.7%
Twins
11–15
42.3%
Angels
11–15
42.3%
Reds
12–16
42.9%
36-point spread between best and worst — Red Sox the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 258 | 52.2% | 52.7% | +0.5 |
| 55-60% | 101 | 57.0% | 55.4% | -1.5 |
| 60-65% | 32 | 61.6% | 65.6% | +4.1 |
| 65-70% | 6 | 66.4% | 33.3% | -33.0 |
| 70%+ | 2 | 75.5% | 50.0% | -25.5 |
Well-calibrated up to 65%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.5%
across 414 picks
Home team picks
60.6%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
11%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
12 of 15
Tuesday, August 4 · 80.0%
✗ Worst day
3 of 16
Wednesday, July 29 · 18.8%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 6 | 9 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |