Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
51.9% Accuracy
207–192 across 399 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 179 | 399 | 44.9% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 199 | 399 | 49.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 204 | 399 | 51.1% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 180 | 399 | 45.1% | |
| Logistic | 201 | 399 | 50.4% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 238 | 399 | 59.6% | |
| Consensus | 207 | 399 | 51.9% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 8.5 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Phillies
19–8
70.4%
Angels
18–9
66.7%
Athletics
18–9
66.7%
Reds
17–10
63.0%
Yankees
16–11
59.3%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Rays
6–19
24.0%
Twins
8–19
29.6%
Cubs
10–17
37.0%
White Sox
10–16
38.5%
Blue Jays
11–17
39.3%
46-point spread between best and worst — Rays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 194 | 52.5% | 51.5% | -1.0 |
| 55-60% | 122 | 57.4% | 50.8% | -6.5 |
| 60-65% | 50 | 62.5% | 50.0% | -12.5 |
| 65-70% | 14 | 67.5% | 42.9% | -24.6 |
| 70%+ | 19 | 73.8% | 73.7% | -0.1 |
Well-calibrated up to 55%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
56.8%
across 414 picks
Home team picks
54.6%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
17%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
6 of 7
Thursday, May 21 · 85.7%
✗ Worst day
2 of 10
Thursday, May 7 · 20.0%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, May 21 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Wed, May 20 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Tue, May 19 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Mon, May 18 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, May 17 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Sat, May 16 | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | |
| Fri, May 15 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Thu, May 14 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |