Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
49.1% Accuracy
195–202 across 397 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 208 | 397 | 52.4% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 190 | 397 | 47.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 195 | 397 | 49.1% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 195 | 397 | 49.1% | |
| Logistic | 194 | 397 | 48.9% | |
| Random Forest | 185 | 397 | 46.6% | |
| Consensus | 195 | 397 | 49.1% |
Baseline is leading individual model by 3.3 points. Consensus edges out 3 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Dodgers
19–8
70.4%
Angels
16–10
61.5%
Tigers
15–11
57.7%
Red Sox
15–11
57.7%
Twins
14–11
56.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
D-backs
9–18
33.3%
Marlins
9–17
34.6%
Orioles
10–16
38.5%
Pirates
10–16
38.5%
Mets
11–16
40.7%
37-point spread between best and worst — D-backs the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 257 | 52.3% | 48.6% | -3.7 |
| 55-60% | 113 | 56.9% | 48.7% | -8.2 |
| 60-65% | 24 | 61.6% | 54.2% | -7.4 |
| 65-70% | 3 | 66.6% | 66.7% | +0.0 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.3%
across 412 picks
Home team picks
59.2%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
9 of 10
Monday, June 15 · 90.0%
✗ Worst day
3 of 14
Saturday, June 20 · 21.4%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 4 | 13 | 30.8% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | |
| Sun, Jun 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |