Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
60.0% Accuracy
57–38 across 95 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 55 | 95 | 57.9% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 50 | 95 | 52.6% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 54 | 95 | 56.8% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 52 | 95 | 54.7% | |
| Logistic | 55 | 95 | 57.9% | |
| Random Forest | 49 | 95 | 51.6% | |
| Consensus | 57 | 95 | 60.0% |
Individual sims are tightly bunched at the top — Baseline barely ahead. Consensus tops every individual sim.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Orioles
6–1
85.7%
Royals
6–1
85.7%
Rockies
5–1
83.3%
Yankees
5–1
83.3%
Giants
5–1
83.3%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
White Sox
1–6
14.3%
Braves
1–6
14.3%
Tigers
1–5
16.7%
Brewers
2–4
33.3%
Twins
2–4
33.3%
71-point spread between best and worst — White Sox the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 59 | 52.4% | 57.6% | +5.2 |
| 55-60% | 23 | 56.7% | 60.9% | +4.1 |
| 60-65% | 10 | 61.4% | 70.0% | +8.6 |
| 65-70% | 2 | 67.6% | 50.0% | -17.6 |
| 70%+ | 1 | 77.5% | 100.0% | +22.5 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.8%
across 110 picks
Home team picks
51.8%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
15%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
12 of 15
Tuesday, August 4 · 80.0%
✗ Worst day
3 of 16
Wednesday, July 29 · 18.8%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 6 | 9 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |