Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
52.1% Accuracy
49–45 across 94 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 45 | 94 | 47.9% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 50 | 94 | 53.2% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 50 | 94 | 53.2% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 47 | 94 | 50.0% | |
| Logistic ★ leader | 51 | 94 | 54.3% | |
| Random Forest | 43 | 94 | 45.7% | |
| Consensus | 49 | 94 | 52.1% |
Logistic is leading individual model by 1.1 points. Consensus edges out 3 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
D-backs
6–1
85.7%
Athletics
6–1
85.7%
Angels
6–1
85.7%
Giants
5–1
83.3%
Marlins
5–2
71.4%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Brewers
0–6
0.0%
Cubs
0–6
0.0%
Twins
1–5
16.7%
Red Sox
1–5
16.7%
Rays
1–4
20.0%
86-point spread between best and worst — Brewers the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 42 | 52.4% | 54.8% | +2.3 |
| 55-60% | 30 | 57.4% | 43.3% | -14.0 |
| 60-65% | 12 | 63.0% | 41.7% | -21.4 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 67.4% | 100.0% | +32.6 |
| 70%+ | 9 | 74.2% | 77.8% | +3.5 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
57.5%
across 109 picks
Home team picks
61.5%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
17%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
6 of 7
Thursday, May 21 · 85.7%
✗ Worst day
2 of 10
Thursday, May 7 · 20.0%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, May 21 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Wed, May 20 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Tue, May 19 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Mon, May 18 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, May 17 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Sat, May 16 | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | |
| Fri, May 15 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Thu, May 14 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |