Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
45.5% Accuracy
5–6 across 11 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 7 | 11 | 63.6% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Logistic | 3 | 11 | 27.3% | |
| Random Forest | 3 | 11 | 27.3% | |
| Consensus | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
Baseline is leading individual model by 9.1 points. Consensus edges out 2 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Brewers
3–0
100.0%
Padres
3–0
100.0%
Guardians
1–2
33.3%
White Sox
1–2
33.3%
Dodgers
1–2
33.3%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Yankees
0–2
0.0%
Rays
0–2
0.0%
Braves
1–2
33.3%
Dodgers
1–2
33.3%
White Sox
1–2
33.3%
100-point spread between best and worst — Yankees the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 5 | 52.9% | 40.0% | -12.9 |
| 55-60% | 5 | 56.7% | 40.0% | -16.7 |
| 60-65% | 1 | 60.7% | 100.0% | +39.3 |
| 65-70% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 50-55% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.4%
across 13 picks
Home team picks
69.2%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
15%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Tuesday, October 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Thursday, October 8 · 0.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 7 | 17 | 41.2% | |
| Thu, Sep 24 | 4 | 12 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Sep 23 | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Mon, Sep 21 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| Sun, Sep 20 | 13 | 15 | 86.7% | |
| Sat, Sep 19 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Fri, Sep 18 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Thu, Sep 17 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Sep 16 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 7 | 10 | 70.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 13 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sat, Sep 12 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Fri, Sep 11 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |