Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
53.3% Accuracy
48–42 across 90 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 47 | 90 | 52.2% | |
| Pitcher-weighted ★ leader | 50 | 90 | 55.6% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 44 | 90 | 48.9% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 48 | 90 | 53.3% | |
| Logistic | 43 | 90 | 47.8% | |
| Random Forest | 35 | 90 | 38.9% | |
| Consensus | 48 | 90 | 53.3% |
Pitcher-weighted is leading individual model by 2.2 points. Consensus edges out 4 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Rays
6–1
85.7%
Padres
6–1
85.7%
Orioles
4–1
80.0%
Red Sox
4–1
80.0%
Dodgers
5–2
71.4%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Twins
1–4
20.0%
Pirates
2–4
33.3%
Nationals
2–4
33.3%
Marlins
2–4
33.3%
Phillies
2–4
33.3%
66-point spread between best and worst — Twins the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 56 | 52.6% | 58.9% | +6.3 |
| 55-60% | 28 | 57.4% | 39.3% | -18.1 |
| 60-65% | 5 | 61.7% | 60.0% | -1.7 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 66.6% | 100.0% | +33.4 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.6%
across 105 picks
Home team picks
62.9%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
16%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
9 of 10
Monday, June 15 · 90.0%
✗ Worst day
3 of 14
Saturday, June 20 · 21.4%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 4 | 13 | 30.8% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | |
| Sun, Jun 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 27 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Fri, Jun 26 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Thu, Jun 25 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Jun 24 | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | |
| Tue, Jun 23 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 22 | 5 | 12 | 41.7% | |
| Sun, Jun 21 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sat, Jun 20 | 3 | 14 | 21.4% | |
| Fri, Jun 19 | 11 | 14 | 78.6% | |
| Thu, Jun 18 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Jun 17 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Jun 16 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Mon, Jun 15 | 9 | 10 | 90.0% | |
| Sun, Jun 14 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Sat, Jun 13 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Fri, Jun 12 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Thu, Jun 11 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Jun 10 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Tue, Jun 9 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 8 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |