Track Record ✦ this season
55.5% Accuracy
1013–812 across 1825 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 951 | 1825 | 52.1% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 915 | 1825 | 50.1% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 927 | 1825 | 50.8% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 917 | 1825 | 50.2% | |
| Logistic | 920 | 1825 | 50.4% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 1053 | 1825 | 57.7% | |
| Consensus | 1013 | 1825 | 55.5% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 5.6 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Phillies
78–44
63.9%
Tigers
75–45
62.5%
Padres
75–46
62.0%
Dodgers
74–46
61.7%
Mariners
74–47
61.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Cubs
59–63
48.4%
Blue Jays
60–63
48.8%
Guardians
60–62
49.2%
White Sox
60–61
49.6%
Rays
61–60
50.4%
16-point spread between best and worst — Cubs the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 1081 | 52.3% | 52.7% | +0.4 |
| 55-60% | 500 | 57.1% | 57.6% | +0.5 |
| 60-65% | 163 | 62.0% | 63.2% | +1.2 |
| 65-70% | 44 | 66.9% | 54.5% | -12.4 |
| 70%+ | 34 | 73.8% | 79.4% | +5.6 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.2%
across 1840 picks
Home team picks
59.0%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
12 of 15
Tuesday, August 4 · 80.0%
✗ Worst day
3 of 16
Wednesday, July 29 · 18.8%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 6 | 9 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Tue, Aug 11 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Mon, Aug 10 | 7 | 10 | 70.0% | |
| Sun, Aug 9 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Sat, Aug 8 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Fri, Aug 7 | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 6 | 7 | 11 | 63.6% | |
| Wed, Aug 5 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Aug 4 | 12 | 15 | 80.0% | |
| Mon, Aug 3 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Aug 2 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, Aug 1 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Fri, Jul 31 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Thu, Jul 30 | 7 | 10 | 70.0% | |
| Wed, Jul 29 | 3 | 16 | 18.8% | |
| Tue, Jul 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, Jul 27 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Sun, Jul 26 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Jul 25 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Fri, Jul 24 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Thu, Jul 23 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |