Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
56.7% Accuracy
72–55 across 127 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 78 | 127 | 61.4% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 65 | 127 | 51.2% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 66 | 127 | 52.0% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 73 | 127 | 57.5% | |
| Logistic | 65 | 127 | 51.2% | |
| Random Forest | 60 | 127 | 47.2% | |
| Consensus | 72 | 127 | 56.7% |
Baseline is leading individual model by 3.9 points. Consensus edges out 4 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Yankees
2–0
100.0%
D-backs
9–1
90.0%
Phillies
5–1
83.3%
Reds
4–1
80.0%
Cardinals
3–1
75.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Mets
1–4
20.0%
Red Sox
2–7
22.2%
White Sox
1–3
25.0%
Rays
2–5
28.6%
Angels
5–11
31.2%
80-point spread between best and worst — Mets the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 71 | 52.4% | 50.7% | -1.7 |
| 55-60% | 41 | 57.2% | 63.4% | +6.2 |
| 60-65% | 12 | 62.0% | 83.3% | +21.4 |
| 65-70% | 3 | 66.1% | 0.0% | -66.1 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Well-calibrated up to 65%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.1%
across 132 picks
Home team picks
65.9%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
15%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
3 of 3
Wednesday, August 19 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 4
Monday, July 27 · 0.0%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 5 | 10 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |