Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
56.6% Accuracy
56–43 across 99 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 45 | 99 | 45.5% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 58 | 99 | 58.6% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 56 | 99 | 56.6% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 49 | 99 | 49.5% | |
| Logistic | 48 | 99 | 48.5% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 67 | 99 | 67.7% | |
| Consensus | 56 | 99 | 56.6% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 9.1 points. Consensus edges out 3 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Angels
7–1
87.5%
Tigers
6–1
85.7%
Guardians
6–1
85.7%
Marlins
5–1
83.3%
Phillies
4–1
80.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Rays
0–5
0.0%
Dodgers
1–7
12.5%
White Sox
1–5
16.7%
Giants
2–5
28.6%
Cubs
2–4
33.3%
88-point spread between best and worst — Rays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 42 | 52.6% | 57.1% | +4.5 |
| 55-60% | 33 | 57.6% | 48.5% | -9.1 |
| 60-65% | 15 | 61.9% | 66.7% | +4.8 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 68.0% | 100.0% | +32.0 |
| 70%+ | 8 | 74.9% | 62.5% | -12.4 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
57.6%
across 104 picks
Home team picks
67.3%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
1 of 1
Tuesday, May 5 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
5 of 15
Tuesday, May 19 · 33.3%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | |
| Tue, May 19 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, May 12 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, May 11 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, May 9 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, May 6 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Tue, May 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, May 1 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, Apr 30 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |