Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
52.2% Accuracy
48–44 across 92 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 53 | 92 | 57.6% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 48 | 92 | 52.2% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 40 | 92 | 43.5% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 46 | 92 | 50.0% | |
| Logistic | 40 | 92 | 43.5% | |
| Random Forest | 41 | 92 | 44.6% | |
| Consensus | 48 | 92 | 52.2% |
Baseline is leading individual model by 5.4 points. Consensus edges out 4 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Mets
3–0
100.0%
Yankees
1–0
100.0%
Rays
4–1
80.0%
Angels
13–5
72.2%
Dodgers
10–4
71.4%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Phillies
0–1
0.0%
Tigers
0–2
0.0%
Guardians
0–1
0.0%
Nationals
0–2
0.0%
Cardinals
0–3
0.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Phillies the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 51 | 52.2% | 51.0% | -1.3 |
| 55-60% | 28 | 57.4% | 53.6% | -3.8 |
| 60-65% | 12 | 61.6% | 50.0% | -11.6 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 66.8% | 100.0% | +33.2 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 60-65% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.2%
across 94 picks
Home team picks
77.7%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
17%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
3 of 3
Monday, July 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 2
Wednesday, June 17 · 0.0%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 27 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |