Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
40.0% Accuracy
10–15 across 25 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 11 | 25 | 44.0% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 9 | 25 | 36.0% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 10 | 25 | 40.0% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon ★ leader | 12 | 25 | 48.0% | |
| Logistic | 11 | 25 | 44.0% | |
| Random Forest | 8 | 25 | 32.0% | |
| Consensus | 10 | 25 | 40.0% |
Pitcher + Platoon is leading individual model by 4.0 points. Consensus edges out 2 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Padres
2–0
100.0%
Mets
1–0
100.0%
Brewers
1–0
100.0%
Angels
3–1
75.0%
Astros
3–1
75.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Dodgers
0–1
0.0%
Braves
0–1
0.0%
Guardians
0–2
0.0%
White Sox
0–2
0.0%
Rays
0–2
0.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Dodgers the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 14 | 52.2% | 50.0% | -2.2 |
| 55-60% | 9 | 57.5% | 22.2% | -35.3 |
| 60-65% | 2 | 62.9% | 50.0% | -12.9 |
| 65-70% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Well-calibrated up to 55%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1725 | 934 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.0%
across 27 picks
Home team picks
55.6%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
19%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Saturday, September 26 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 2
Friday, September 11 · 0.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| Thu, Sep 24 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 23 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Sep 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Sep 19 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, Sep 18 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Sep 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Sep 12 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, Sep 11 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |