Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
55.6% Accuracy
15–12 across 27 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 13 | 27 | 48.1% | |
| Pitcher-weighted ★ leader | 16 | 27 | 59.3% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 11 | 27 | 40.7% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 16 | 27 | 59.3% | |
| Logistic | 11 | 27 | 40.7% | |
| Random Forest | 9 | 27 | 33.3% | |
| Consensus | 15 | 27 | 55.6% |
Individual sims are tightly bunched at the top — Pitcher-weighted barely ahead. Consensus edges out 4 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Mets
1–0
100.0%
Padres
5–0
100.0%
Dodgers
5–1
83.3%
Rockies
3–1
75.0%
Angels
3–1
75.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Rays
0–1
0.0%
Astros
0–1
0.0%
Cardinals
0–3
0.0%
Cubs
0–1
0.0%
Blue Jays
1–2
33.3%
100-point spread between best and worst — Rays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 13 | 52.7% | 61.5% | +8.8 |
| 55-60% | 9 | 58.2% | 44.4% | -13.7 |
| 60-65% | 5 | 61.7% | 60.0% | -1.7 |
| 65-70% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Well-calibrated up to 55%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
56.3%
across 29 picks
Home team picks
82.8%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
24%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
3 of 3
Monday, July 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 2
Wednesday, June 17 · 0.0%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 27 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |