Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
48.5% Accuracy
16–17 across 33 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 16 | 33 | 48.5% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 18 | 33 | 54.5% | |
| Platoon-weighted ★ leader | 19 | 33 | 57.6% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 15 | 33 | 45.5% | |
| Logistic | 17 | 33 | 51.5% | |
| Random Forest | 19 | 33 | 57.6% | |
| Consensus | 16 | 33 | 48.5% |
Individual sims are tightly bunched at the top — Platoon-weighted barely ahead. Consensus edges out 1 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Nationals
2–0
100.0%
Mets
2–0
100.0%
Angels
3–0
100.0%
Athletics
3–0
100.0%
Marlins
2–0
100.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Cubs
0–1
0.0%
Mariners
0–2
0.0%
White Sox
0–2
0.0%
Royals
0–2
0.0%
Red Sox
0–2
0.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Cubs the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 12 | 52.4% | 50.0% | -2.4 |
| 55-60% | 14 | 57.4% | 42.9% | -14.5 |
| 60-65% | 3 | 61.9% | 66.7% | +4.7 |
| 65-70% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 70%+ | 4 | 76.1% | 50.0% | -26.1 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
58.2%
across 38 picks
Home team picks
76.3%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
11%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
1 of 1
Tuesday, May 5 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
5 of 15
Tuesday, May 19 · 33.3%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | |
| Tue, May 19 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, May 12 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, May 11 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, May 9 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, May 6 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Tue, May 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, May 1 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, Apr 30 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |