Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
60.6% Accuracy
20–13 across 33 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 20 | 33 | 60.6% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 17 | 33 | 51.5% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 18 | 33 | 54.5% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 21 | 33 | 63.6% | |
| Logistic ★ leader | 24 | 33 | 72.7% | |
| Random Forest | 17 | 33 | 51.5% | |
| Consensus | 20 | 33 | 60.6% |
Logistic is leading individual model by 9.1 points. Consensus edges out 3 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Rockies
4–0
100.0%
Orioles
2–0
100.0%
Yankees
1–0
100.0%
Rangers
3–0
100.0%
Guardians
1–0
100.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Marlins
0–1
0.0%
White Sox
0–3
0.0%
Brewers
0–2
0.0%
Tigers
0–2
0.0%
Astros
0–4
0.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Marlins the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 17 | 52.5% | 52.9% | +0.4 |
| 55-60% | 11 | 56.7% | 72.7% | +16.0 |
| 60-65% | 4 | 60.7% | 75.0% | +14.3 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 66.6% | 0.0% | -66.6 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Well-calibrated up to 65%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.1%
across 38 picks
Home team picks
55.3%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
21%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
3 of 3
Wednesday, August 19 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 4
Monday, July 27 · 0.0%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 5 | 10 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |