Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
16.7% Accuracy
1–5 across 6 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Logistic | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Random Forest | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Consensus | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
Baseline is leading individual model by 16.7 points. Consensus trails every individual sim — weighting needs tuning.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Padres
1–0
100.0%
Brewers
1–0
100.0%
Rays
0–2
0.0%
Yankees
0–2
0.0%
White Sox
0–2
0.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Dodgers
0–1
0.0%
Braves
0–1
0.0%
Guardians
0–2
0.0%
White Sox
0–2
0.0%
Yankees
0–2
0.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Dodgers the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 4 | 52.8% | 25.0% | -27.8 |
| 55-60% | 2 | 57.7% | 0.0% | -57.7 |
| 60-65% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 65-70% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Well-calibrated up to 50%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.3%
across 7 picks
Home team picks
71.4%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
14%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Saturday, September 26 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 2
Friday, September 11 · 0.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| Thu, Sep 24 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 23 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Sep 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |