Track Record ✦ this season
58.9% Accuracy
215–150 across 365 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 192 | 365 | 52.6% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 185 | 365 | 50.7% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 196 | 365 | 53.7% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 191 | 365 | 52.3% | |
| Logistic | 186 | 365 | 51.0% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 237 | 365 | 64.9% | |
| Consensus | 215 | 365 | 58.9% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 11.2 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Padres
26–8
76.5%
Astros
15–6
71.4%
Mets
14–6
70.0%
Angels
27–13
67.5%
Reds
10–5
66.7%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Royals
5–8
38.5%
White Sox
5–8
38.5%
Yankees
8–11
42.1%
Cubs
12–16
42.9%
Braves
12–14
46.2%
38-point spread between best and worst — Royals the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 187 | 52.4% | 52.9% | +0.5 |
| 55-60% | 104 | 57.3% | 61.5% | +4.2 |
| 60-65% | 51 | 61.9% | 66.7% | +4.8 |
| 65-70% | 8 | 67.5% | 87.5% | +20.0 |
| 70%+ | 14 | 75.1% | 71.4% | -3.7 |
Calibration drifts up to 20.0 points across bands.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
56.3%
across 367 picks
Home team picks
69.2%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
14%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
3 of 3
Monday, July 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 2
Wednesday, June 17 · 0.0%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 27 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |