Track Record ✦ this season
56.8% Accuracy
351–267 across 618 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 348 | 618 | 56.3% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 322 | 618 | 52.1% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 327 | 618 | 52.9% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 325 | 618 | 52.6% | |
| Logistic | 313 | 618 | 50.6% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 354 | 618 | 57.3% | |
| Consensus | 351 | 618 | 56.8% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 1.0 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Padres
43–17
71.7%
Tigers
20–9
69.0%
Dodgers
48–25
65.8%
Rockies
38–21
64.4%
Pirates
23–14
62.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
White Sox
8–15
34.8%
Yankees
12–21
36.4%
Cubs
20–24
45.5%
Giants
27–30
47.4%
Red Sox
16–16
50.0%
37-point spread between best and worst — White Sox the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 332 | 52.4% | 52.4% | +0.0 |
| 55-60% | 188 | 57.3% | 58.5% | +1.2 |
| 60-65% | 69 | 61.9% | 69.6% | +7.7 |
| 65-70% | 12 | 67.2% | 66.7% | -0.6 |
| 70%+ | 15 | 74.8% | 66.7% | -8.1 |
Well-calibrated up to 70%+%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.8%
across 619 picks
Home team picks
67.2%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
14%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Saturday, September 26 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 2
Friday, September 11 · 0.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| Thu, Sep 24 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 23 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Sep 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |