Track Record ✦ this season
58.5% Accuracy
319–226 across 545 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 309 | 545 | 56.7% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 283 | 545 | 51.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 289 | 545 | 53.0% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 291 | 545 | 53.4% | |
| Logistic | 278 | 545 | 51.0% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 323 | 545 | 59.3% | |
| Consensus | 319 | 545 | 58.5% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 2.6 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Padres
39–15
72.2%
D-backs
34–15
69.4%
Tigers
19–10
65.5%
Dodgers
42–23
64.6%
Rockies
36–20
64.3%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
White Sox
7–11
38.9%
Yankees
10–13
43.5%
Cubs
19–23
45.2%
Braves
14–16
46.7%
Red Sox
16–16
50.0%
33-point spread between best and worst — White Sox the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 292 | 52.3% | 53.1% | +0.7 |
| 55-60% | 159 | 57.3% | 62.3% | +5.0 |
| 60-65% | 67 | 61.9% | 70.1% | +8.3 |
| 65-70% | 11 | 67.2% | 63.6% | -3.5 |
| 70%+ | 14 | 75.1% | 71.4% | -3.7 |
Calibration drifts up to 8.3 points across bands.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.8%
across 550 picks
Home team picks
68.5%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
14%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
3 of 3
Wednesday, August 19 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
0 of 4
Monday, July 27 · 0.0%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 5 | 10 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Aug 11 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | |
| Mon, Aug 10 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Sun, Aug 9 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 8 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Fri, Aug 7 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| Thu, Aug 6 | 7 | 11 | 63.6% | |
| Wed, Aug 5 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Tue, Aug 4 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | |
| Mon, Aug 3 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| Sat, Aug 1 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | |
| Fri, Jul 31 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| Thu, Jul 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Jul 29 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Tue, Jul 28 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Mon, Jul 27 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | |
| Sat, Jul 25 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Fri, Jul 24 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |