Track Record ✦ this season
62.3% Accuracy
132–80 across 212 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 105 | 212 | 49.5% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 108 | 212 | 50.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 119 | 212 | 56.1% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 110 | 212 | 51.9% | |
| Logistic | 112 | 212 | 52.8% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 165 | 212 | 77.8% | |
| Consensus | 132 | 212 | 62.3% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 21.7 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Tigers
9–1
90.0%
Padres
17–2
89.5%
Astros
11–2
84.6%
Red Sox
8–2
80.0%
Angels
11–4
73.3%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
White Sox
3–6
33.3%
Rays
4–7
36.4%
Yankees
6–8
42.9%
Royals
5–6
45.5%
Dodgers
10–11
47.6%
57-point spread between best and worst — White Sox the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 102 | 52.6% | 54.9% | +2.3 |
| 55-60% | 59 | 57.4% | 66.1% | +8.7 |
| 60-65% | 33 | 61.9% | 72.7% | +10.8 |
| 65-70% | 5 | 67.2% | 80.0% | +12.8 |
| 70%+ | 12 | 75.1% | 66.7% | -8.5 |
Well-calibrated up to 70%+%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
57.0%
across 217 picks
Home team picks
68.7%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
15%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
1 of 1
Tuesday, May 5 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
5 of 15
Tuesday, May 19 · 33.3%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | |
| Tue, May 19 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, May 12 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, May 11 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, May 9 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, May 6 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Tue, May 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Fri, May 1 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| Thu, Apr 30 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Apr 29 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Mon, Apr 27 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Fri, Apr 24 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |