Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
50.3% Accuracy
151–149 across 300 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 134 | 300 | 44.7% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 141 | 300 | 47.0% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 148 | 300 | 49.3% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 131 | 300 | 43.7% | |
| Logistic | 153 | 300 | 51.0% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 171 | 300 | 57.0% | |
| Consensus | 151 | 300 | 50.3% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 6.0 points. Consensus edges out 4 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Phillies
15–7
68.2%
Giants
13–7
65.0%
Rangers
11–6
64.7%
Reds
14–8
63.6%
Athletics
12–7
63.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Twins
5–15
25.0%
Rays
6–14
30.0%
Blue Jays
7–14
33.3%
Royals
7–12
36.8%
Cubs
8–13
38.1%
43-point spread between best and worst — Twins the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 152 | 52.5% | 50.0% | -2.5 |
| 55-60% | 89 | 57.3% | 51.7% | -5.6 |
| 60-65% | 35 | 62.8% | 42.9% | -19.9 |
| 65-70% | 13 | 67.4% | 38.5% | -29.0 |
| 70%+ | 11 | 73.0% | 81.8% | +8.9 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
56.5%
across 310 picks
Home team picks
50.3%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
18%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
6 of 7
Thursday, May 21 · 85.7%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Friday, May 22 · 0.0%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Thu, May 21 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Wed, May 20 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, May 18 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, May 17 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Sat, May 16 | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | |
| Fri, May 15 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Thu, May 14 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| Wed, May 13 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |