Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
56.8% Accuracy
130–99 across 229 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 126 | 229 | 55.0% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 128 | 229 | 55.9% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 115 | 229 | 50.2% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon ★ leader | 132 | 229 | 57.6% | |
| Logistic | 123 | 229 | 53.7% | |
| Random Forest | 121 | 229 | 52.8% | |
| Consensus | 130 | 229 | 56.8% |
Pitcher + Platoon is leading individual model by 1.7 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Giants
12–2
85.7%
Athletics
8–2
80.0%
Dodgers
14–5
73.7%
Cardinals
11–4
73.3%
Astros
9–4
69.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Mets
5–10
33.3%
D-backs
4–7
36.4%
Orioles
5–8
38.5%
Mariners
4–6
40.0%
Blue Jays
6–9
40.0%
52-point spread between best and worst — Mets the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 145 | 52.2% | 52.4% | +0.2 |
| 55-60% | 63 | 56.9% | 57.1% | +0.3 |
| 60-65% | 14 | 62.3% | 78.6% | +16.3 |
| 65-70% | 6 | 66.8% | 100.0% | +33.2 |
| 70%+ | 1 | 74.6% | 100.0% | +25.4 |
Calibration drifts up to 33.2 points across bands.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.6%
across 230 picks
Home team picks
59.1%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Tuesday, October 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
1 of 4
Saturday, October 3 · 25.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |