Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
48.2% Accuracy
147–158 across 305 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 155 | 305 | 50.8% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 142 | 305 | 46.6% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 155 | 305 | 50.8% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 149 | 305 | 48.9% | |
| Logistic | 154 | 305 | 50.5% | |
| Random Forest | 144 | 305 | 47.2% | |
| Consensus | 147 | 305 | 48.2% |
Individual sims are tightly bunched at the top — Baseline barely ahead. Consensus edges out 2 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Dodgers
9–4
69.2%
Tigers
15–9
62.5%
Red Sox
12–8
60.0%
Braves
12–8
60.0%
Cubs
10–7
58.8%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
D-backs
4–14
22.2%
Mets
8–16
33.3%
Athletics
2–4
33.3%
Pirates
7–13
35.0%
Angels
3–5
37.5%
47-point spread between best and worst — D-backs the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 206 | 52.4% | 48.1% | -4.3 |
| 55-60% | 85 | 56.7% | 47.1% | -9.7 |
| 60-65% | 12 | 61.6% | 58.3% | -3.2 |
| 65-70% | 2 | 66.5% | 50.0% | -16.5 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Well-calibrated up to 55%, then meaningful overconfidence kicks in.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.0%
across 318 picks
Home team picks
53.8%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
11%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
7 of 8
Monday, June 15 · 87.5%
✗ Worst day
2 of 9
Saturday, June 20 · 22.2%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 2 | 7 | 28.6% | |
| Sun, Jun 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 27 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Fri, Jun 26 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Thu, Jun 25 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Jun 24 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 23 | 5 | 12 | 41.7% | |
| Mon, Jun 22 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Sun, Jun 21 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 20 | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | |
| Fri, Jun 19 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | |
| Thu, Jun 18 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Jun 17 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Tue, Jun 16 | 9 | 12 | 75.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 15 | 7 | 8 | 87.5% | |
| Sun, Jun 14 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Sat, Jun 13 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Fri, Jun 12 | 5 | 12 | 41.7% | |
| Thu, Jun 11 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Jun 10 | 4 | 12 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, Jun 9 | 3 | 10 | 30.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 8 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |