Track Record ✦ the last 30 days
52.9% Accuracy
144–128 across 272 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 139 | 272 | 51.1% | |
| Pitcher-weighted ★ leader | 146 | 272 | 53.7% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 129 | 272 | 47.4% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 140 | 272 | 51.5% | |
| Logistic | 114 | 272 | 41.9% | |
| Random Forest | 139 | 272 | 51.1% | |
| Consensus | 144 | 272 | 52.9% |
Pitcher-weighted is leading individual model by 2.2 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Giants
12–3
80.0%
Rangers
13–5
72.2%
Mariners
9–4
69.2%
Astros
8–4
66.7%
Orioles
15–8
65.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Reds
8–15
34.8%
D-backs
6–11
35.3%
Rockies
5–8
38.5%
Padres
5–8
38.5%
Dodgers
3–4
42.9%
45-point spread between best and worst — Reds the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 187 | 52.1% | 53.5% | +1.4 |
| 55-60% | 60 | 56.8% | 50.0% | -6.8 |
| 60-65% | 20 | 61.3% | 55.0% | -6.3 |
| 65-70% | 3 | 66.6% | 66.7% | +0.1 |
| 70%+ | 2 | 75.5% | 50.0% | -25.5 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.1%
across 282 picks
Home team picks
58.2%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
9%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
5 of 6
Thursday, July 30 · 83.3%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Monday, August 3 · 0.0%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 7 | 11 | 63.6% | |
| Tue, Aug 11 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Mon, Aug 10 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| Sun, Aug 9 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 8 | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | |
| Fri, Aug 7 | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | |
| Wed, Aug 5 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Tue, Aug 4 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | |
| Mon, Aug 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Sun, Aug 2 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Sat, Aug 1 | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | |
| Fri, Jul 31 | 3 | 10 | 30.0% | |
| Thu, Jul 30 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | |
| Wed, Jul 29 | 2 | 12 | 16.7% | |
| Tue, Jul 28 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 27 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| Sun, Jul 26 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Jul 25 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Fri, Jul 24 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Thu, Jul 23 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |