Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
59.7% Accuracy
37–25 across 62 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 35 | 62 | 56.5% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 33 | 62 | 53.2% | |
| Platoon-weighted ★ leader | 36 | 62 | 58.1% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 31 | 62 | 50.0% | |
| Logistic | 31 | 62 | 50.0% | |
| Random Forest | 32 | 62 | 51.6% | |
| Consensus | 37 | 62 | 59.7% |
Platoon-weighted is leading individual model by 1.6 points. Consensus tops every individual sim.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Cubs
3–0
100.0%
Mariners
3–0
100.0%
Astros
2–0
100.0%
Angels
2–0
100.0%
Royals
2–0
100.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Dodgers
0–1
0.0%
Twins
0–4
0.0%
Braves
1–6
14.3%
White Sox
1–3
25.0%
Tigers
1–3
25.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Dodgers the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 42 | 52.4% | 59.5% | +7.1 |
| 55-60% | 12 | 56.8% | 50.0% | -6.8 |
| 60-65% | 6 | 61.9% | 66.7% | +4.7 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 68.6% | 100.0% | +31.4 |
| 70%+ | 1 | 77.5% | 100.0% | +22.5 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.6%
across 72 picks
Home team picks
50.0%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
11%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
5 of 6
Thursday, July 30 · 83.3%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Monday, August 3 · 0.0%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |