Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
52.4% Accuracy
33–30 across 63 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 34 | 63 | 54.0% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 34 | 63 | 54.0% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 33 | 63 | 52.4% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 32 | 63 | 50.8% | |
| Logistic | 32 | 63 | 50.8% | |
| Random Forest | 26 | 63 | 41.3% | |
| Consensus | 33 | 63 | 52.4% |
Individual sims are tightly bunched at the top — Baseline barely ahead. Consensus edges out 3 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Rays
6–0
100.0%
Red Sox
2–0
100.0%
Orioles
4–1
80.0%
Cardinals
4–1
80.0%
Cubs
3–1
75.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Angels
0–1
0.0%
Dodgers
0–1
0.0%
D-backs
0–1
0.0%
Giants
0–2
0.0%
Mets
1–4
20.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Angels the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 43 | 52.5% | 58.1% | +5.6 |
| 55-60% | 19 | 57.0% | 36.8% | -20.1 |
| 60-65% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 65-70% | 1 | 66.6% | 100.0% | +33.4 |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.0%
across 76 picks
Home team picks
55.3%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
7 of 8
Monday, June 15 · 87.5%
✗ Worst day
2 of 9
Saturday, June 20 · 22.2%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 2 | 7 | 28.6% | |
| Sun, Jun 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |