Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
80.0% Accuracy
4–1 across 5 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline ★ leader | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Logistic | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| Random Forest | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| Consensus | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
Individual sims are tightly bunched at the top — Baseline barely ahead. Consensus edges out 3 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Brewers
2–0
100.0%
Padres
2–0
100.0%
Guardians
1–0
100.0%
White Sox
1–0
100.0%
Dodgers
1–1
50.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Braves
1–1
50.0%
Dodgers
1–1
50.0%
White Sox
1–0
100.0%
Guardians
1–0
100.0%
Padres
2–0
100.0%
50-point spread between best and worst — Braves the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 1 | 53.3% | 100.0% | +46.7 |
| 55-60% | 3 | 56.0% | 66.7% | +10.7 |
| 60-65% | 1 | 60.7% | 100.0% | +39.3 |
| 65-70% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 70%+ | 0 | — | — | — |
Calibration drifts up to 46.7 points across bands.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.6%
across 6 picks
Home team picks
66.7%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
17%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Tuesday, October 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
1 of 4
Saturday, October 3 · 25.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |