Track Record ✦ the last 7 days
54.1% Accuracy
33–28 across 61 games
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 29 | 61 | 47.5% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 32 | 61 | 52.5% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 31 | 61 | 50.8% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 32 | 61 | 52.5% | |
| Logistic ★ leader | 34 | 61 | 55.7% | |
| Random Forest | 24 | 61 | 39.3% | |
| Consensus | 33 | 61 | 54.1% |
Logistic is leading individual model by 3.3 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
D-backs
4–0
100.0%
Giants
4–0
100.0%
Pirates
3–1
75.0%
White Sox
3–1
75.0%
Cardinals
3–1
75.0%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Brewers
0–3
0.0%
Cubs
0–5
0.0%
Blue Jays
1–4
20.0%
Twins
1–3
25.0%
Red Sox
1–3
25.0%
100-point spread between best and worst — Brewers the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 30 | 52.4% | 56.7% | +4.2 |
| 55-60% | 16 | 57.4% | 43.8% | -13.6 |
| 60-65% | 9 | 63.4% | 33.3% | -30.1 |
| 65-70% | 1 | 67.4% | 100.0% | +32.6 |
| 70%+ | 5 | 72.8% | 100.0% | +27.2 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 55-60% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
57.2%
across 71 picks
Home team picks
53.5%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
20%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
6 of 7
Thursday, May 21 · 85.7%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Friday, May 22 · 0.0%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Thu, May 21 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Wed, May 20 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, May 18 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, May 17 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Sat, May 16 | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | |
| Fri, May 15 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Thu, May 14 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| Wed, May 13 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sun, May 10 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sat, May 9 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | |
| Fri, May 8 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Thu, May 7 | 2 | 10 | 20.0% | |
| Wed, May 6 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| Tue, May 5 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Mon, May 4 | 9 | 12 | 75.0% | |
| Sun, May 3 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, May 2 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Fri, May 1 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Thu, Apr 30 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | |
| Wed, Apr 29 | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, Apr 28 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Mon, Apr 27 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| Sun, Apr 26 | 8 | 16 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Apr 25 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |