Track Record ✦ this season
54.2% Accuracy
694–586 across 1280 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 642 | 1280 | 50.2% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 632 | 1280 | 49.4% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 638 | 1280 | 49.8% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 626 | 1280 | 48.9% | |
| Logistic | 642 | 1280 | 50.2% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 730 | 1280 | 57.0% | |
| Consensus | 694 | 1280 | 54.2% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 6.9 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Phillies
63–35
64.3%
Giants
45–25
64.3%
Mariners
44–27
62.0%
Tigers
56–35
61.5%
Brewers
46–33
58.2%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Blue Jays
45–51
46.9%
Guardians
46–52
46.9%
D-backs
35–38
47.9%
Rays
46–47
49.5%
Cubs
40–40
50.0%
17-point spread between best and worst — Blue Jays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 789 | 52.3% | 52.6% | +0.3 |
| 55-60% | 341 | 57.0% | 55.4% | -1.6 |
| 60-65% | 96 | 62.1% | 58.3% | -3.8 |
| 65-70% | 33 | 66.9% | 51.5% | -15.4 |
| 70%+ | 20 | 72.9% | 85.0% | +12.1 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1280 | 694 | 54.2% | |
| Fallback lineups | 545 | 319 | 58.5% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.3 points more accurate. 30% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.9%
across 1290 picks
Home team picks
55.0%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
5 of 6
Thursday, July 30 · 83.3%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Monday, August 3 · 0.0%
Jul 23
Aug 7
Aug 21
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 21 | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | |
| Thu, Aug 20 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | |
| Wed, Aug 19 | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | |
| Tue, Aug 18 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | |
| Mon, Aug 17 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Aug 16 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Aug 15 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |